Without further ado, here are some thoughts on what may/may not happen in 2004.

This is mainly an exercise I do so I can make fun of myself a year from now…

2004 Events/Non-Events

• Sun: I think that 2004 will be, much like 2003, surprisingly quiet for Sun. I expected big upheavals at Sun last year; I was wrong. In 2004, I expect Sun to continue to lose Unix market share, but to make an impact with their Linux desktop (for reasons completely unclear – another nod to the ‘Sun has no clue what to do with Java’ proponents – named the Java Desktop).
• Linux: Will continue its quiet but relentless progress, appearing in all but the most hard-core MS shops by years end in some form. The desktop will make inroads, mainly due to government and 3rd-world adoption, but it will not be a strong contender for the homeowner. Lack of apps and non-Window’s-like behavior will prevent it from being a contender this year. (Note: Users who like Unix desktops will continue to turn to Apple, with the BSD core under a great GUI). The brand-spanking new 2.6 kernel will start making an apearance in a plethora of non-server/desktop tools (phones, toaster ovens…).
• Microsoft: Longhorn will again be delayed; more anti-trust type suits will haunt this company. Some major snafu will come out of the XP Service Pack 2 upgrade (probably security). By year’s end, MS will still be struggling to articulate its .Net initiative. Its stock will still close 2004 above 2003 levels.
• SCO vs. the World: I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that the case against IBM – at least in its current form – will be dismissed this year.
• Apple: Like Linux, a quiet year, but they will do well for Apple. No big introductions, unless some unknown video product emerges.
• Blogs: The blush is off the bride (or whatever that phrase is). I see more mainstream use of blogs while, at the same time, interest in blogs decline. In other words, the initial thrill is gone, and that’ll leave the hard-core bloggers and those that will actually use the medium for something useful, potentially something new and exciting. I’ve noted before the drop off in the number of posts by many bloggers that I read; I expect this to continue. The fascination is gone; now is the time to reap the useful.
• IT Market/Jobs: Spending will increase this year; however, the growth is jobs will be marginalized by two factors: 1) Many of the new jobs will be overseas; 2) There will not be the number of jobs – especially at yesterday’s salaries – offered. Yes, companies will begin hiring again, but very carefully. The recovering economy will not trickle down to the IT worker this year in any compelling manner.
• Languages: Same as 2003 – C# will continue to steal from both Java and VB, but Java will continue to draw programmers. Perl will still be the duct tape that holds the Internet togehter (and makes the majority of most folk’s scripting possible). PHP may make a foray into Java, as ColdFusion has done with ColdFusion MX. If PHP does this, it will be more successful in gaining marketshare and market attention in doing so.
• Google: Google will have – or announce – an IPO. Wall Street will cheer. On another note, Google will draw intense flak for some decision/behavior (blocking access to XX, allowing paid links to YY, for examples) and have to bow to public pressure and roll back on this decision.

Check back in a year for a chuckle.