Ok, the Oscars are on tonight. I’ll be watching for two reasons:

• I usually watch the Emmy’s and Oscars every year.
• I’m a big Jon Stewart fan, and I want to see how his first stint as host goes. From what I’ve see of past hosts, his performance will put him into one of three categories:

  • Classy and classic: Bob Hope, Johnny Carson, Billy Crystal (not as classy, but classic).
  • Shrug. Whatever: Whoopi Goldberg, Chris Rock.
  • Crash and Burn: David Letterman (and I’m a Letterman fan).

OK, on to my guesses, where – in less than 10 or so hours, I can look like an ass!

I’ve not seen any of the pictures nominated this year, so I’m going by what I’ve read, gut and guessing.

• Best Picture: Brokeback Mountain. Hey, Tom Hanks won for playing a gay lawyer dying of AIDS in Philadelphia, right? Possible spoiler: Crash, which has built buzz recently (came out in May/June of 2005).
• Best Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote. This one the sole lock, to me.
• Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line.
• Best Supporting Actor: George Clooney, Syriana. I think it’s a coin toss between Clooney (partly as consolation for not getting this year’s director’s award for Good Night and Good Luck) and Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man, as a mea culpa for overlooking his brilliant work in last year’s Sideways (not even a nomination!).
• Best Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener. I know less about this category than any other this year, but Weisz’s work was supposed to have been great, and the general overlooking of this film might win her some votes aimed at getting this film some recognition.
• Best Director: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain

And the Oscar® goes to…

Update: I got everything except Best Picture correctly, but – at least – my dark horse candidate won for this category. Jon Stewart? Fell in the middle bucket. He didn’t crash and burn, but he didn’t shine, either. Hmm…