I write this more as a prognostication/plea than as a fact.

I hope SVG is not doomed.

But I think it is. (Here’s a nice historical overview of SVG [note: PDF] ).

Here’s why:

• SVG has been around since 1998 as a working draft (to get around the limitations of PostScript for Web use). That’s over five years. Half the Web’s life.
• 99% of average users – including I would guess ~75+% of Web developers/designers – have never heard of SVG (ouch!)
• 75+% of average users – including I would guess ~99% of Web developers/designers – have heard of Flash (another vector-graphic tool)
• Flash comes with most browsers; installation for those without is straightforward
• Few users – a statistically insignificant percentage – have the SVG plug-in
• You can buy (Macromedia) Flash-building tools. Robust, well-accepted and integrated tools
• SVG requires hand-coding in many cases; few programs output native SVG code (With the sole exception of Adobe Illustrator, no major programs)
• SVG’s acceptance and market penetration is following the same trajectory as VRML – yes, the forgotten VRML…
• MS’s Longhorn (as currently planned) is going to come with its own proprietary vector-graphic tools. Why invest in making/building tools/app for SVG when MS is poised to crush them/it?

Hey, I’m not happy about this, but let’s be real about it. It does not look good.